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Look for the underdog... Not the top dog

Ahead of Chinese New Year on Friday 16 February 2018, OMGI’s head of Asian equities, Josh Crabb, looks at investment opportunities in the region.

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Rising rates and the banking silver lining

“Markets around the world are fretting over the move upwards in interest rates, both at the base rate level (both the UK and US central banks raised rates in the fourth quarter of 2017) and along the yield curve, as measured by government bond yields. With the Bank of England adopting a more hawkish tone this week, UK investors are increasingly pricing in a move to tighter policy.

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Comment on market volatility

Although appearing dramatic on the surface, the market reaction has thus far been proportionate. Recent economic data has rightly stimulated the view that central banks will raise rates faster than expected and markets have responded to the possibility of a reaction from the Fed. Investors have been prompted to re-evaluate and a correction has naturally followed. Thus far this represents a proportionate response – real yields and bond market volatility are within the normal range for the last few years.

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Powell must control inflation genie once it leaves the bottle

“Incoming Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has a tough job in front of him. He inherits sky high asset valuations and an economy growing above potential. He also has a president who sees the wealth created from the rise in these asset prices as the crowning achievement of his thus far controversial presidency.

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Baton passed: comment on the European Central Bank monthly meeting

“It would appear that, after many years of central bankers’ largesse, their omnipotence is fading as economic fundamentals take centre stage. While European Central Bank (ECB) president, Mario Draghi, raised concerns about euro volatility, short of all-out currency wars, there is little he can do to contain the currency’s strength when the growth outlook is so positive.

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