Will North Korea be the catalyst for a new bull market in gold?


Ned Naylor-Leyland, manager of the Old Mutual Gold & Silver Fund, considers whether escalating tensions between President Trump and North Korea could  trigger a re-allocation to gold.  

Gold and silver prices jumped as the President Trump/ North Korea stand-off escalated.  While the two monetary metals continue to trade mostly on real yield dynamics, some investors reacted to the escalating tension by buying these traditional safe-haven instruments.  In the event that war should break out, and that leads to an acceptance of further loose monetary and fiscal policy in the US, we would expect a falling US dollar real yield environment, giving renewed, and sustainable, impetus to monetary metals prices. Institutional investors appear to be, once again, considering an allocation to gold.  Current institutional allocations are at their lowest, relative to historic levels. Should they start re-allocating, we believe a big move in global gold prices will inevitably ensue. Gold, of course, is already a core asset class for central banks, the super-rich and what are classified as ‘the global poor.’ Should the North Korea situation develop it may just prove to be the catalyst to push the institutional world to commit flows back to this asset class on a sustained basis.